云南干旱还会是2013年普洱茶涨价的一个因素吗？
Can Yunnan drought justify increased Pu-erh prices in 2013?
2009年入秋以来，中国西南等部分地区降水较少，气温偏高，出现持续干旱。近期，旱情仍呈发展态势。
Since Autumn 2009, South Western China has seen a lack of precipitation and high temperatures, which created a drought. Nowadays, the situation is still worrying.
虽然旱情对云南省茶叶生产有较大影响，但茶叶消费弹性大，价格上涨对普通消费者影响不大。
Even though the drought has had a severe impact on tea production, despite irregular consumption, the price increase has not impacted the demand.
据统计，云南省茶叶产量约占国内总产量的13%，其中春茶占省内茶叶产量的25%至30%。云南省农业厅预计，2010年省内春茶将因旱灾减产50%左右，其中普洱春茶减产约60%。受此影响，去年普洱茶收购价格涨幅已超过20%，最高的超过70%。
According to statistics, Yunnan tea represents 13% of the Chinese tea production, 25 to 30% if we only consider Spring tea. The Yunnan Agricultural Department estimates that, in 2010, the drought reduced production by 50% overall and by about 60% for Spring tea. As a consequence of the drought, the price of tea last year increased by 20% on average, and up to 70% in some villages.
由于国内普洱茶产量占茶叶总产量的比重不足4%，且目前库存充裕（东莞普洱茶藏量占普洱茶总量的2/3），干旱减产不会影响市场供应。
As a result, Pu-erh tea does not even account for 4% of the total Chinese production nowadays, yet, the Pu-erh stock remains large (two thirds of the Pu-erh tea is stored in Dongguan, near Guangzhou), therefore, the drought should not have an influence on the supply.
在全国消费能力提高、物价都涨的情况下：2013年普洱茶春茶价格涨是一定的，不然茶农怎么脱贫，茶商怎么赚钱？但小编我认为云南干旱了这么几年，今年应该不会还用干旱做为普洱茶涨价的因素吧？*
In China, the consumption should continue to increase and the prices do the same: Pu-erh tea will surely be more expensive in 2013. Still, will the farmers get out of poverty? Will the tea shops make money? I think the Yunnan drought has been around for years, can it still be used as an argument to justify higher prices?
Thank you for making these original sources accessible to us! There is so much Puer knowledge out there that I cannot read as it is in Chinese... hmph.
ReplyDeleteI think the point that stock in Dongguan will keep up supply so prices will not be affected by the drought will not hold true. If you are a producer planning to press Banzhang cakes, you will have to buy Banzhang maocha (at least if you are not faking it). So it does not matter, how many thousands of tongs are available in Dongguan - the supply of fresh maocha will in many areas be far below the factories' demand. So prices of maocha will rise, fresh bings will be sold at higher prices and we will encounter more of the strange phenomenon that new cakes will be offered at prices exceeding those of lesser known bings which have been aged for 10 years or more.
Currently most Chinese tea drinkers pay most attention to how drought may impact puerh market. But I've seen more and more people getting interested in culture and ecosystem through tea drinking. Hopefully more people will pay attention to the drought itself. It has happened in Yunnan most years in recent years and it looks like climate change is happening right now.
ReplyDeleteDear Gero, you are right, the price of young tea has a more direct connection to the output of the year, I think in the article, the author was talking about prices of all kinds of Pu-erh. To me, the fact that young tea can be more expensive than some aged tea shows that there is an interest for it, i'm sure many amateurs enjoy young raw pu-erh without looking for further aging, we cannot really say that tea gets better with age, it just gets different.
ReplyDeleteDear Gingko, you make a good point, I would guess that ancient and natural tea gardens are less affected by drought conditions, because they live in a richer environment. Intensive production is often less tolerant to stress than, say, scattered tea trees growing in a forest. Now, is the drought due to the global climate change, a specific human impact or can be explained by the natural variability?