云南干旱还会是2013年普洱茶涨价的一个因素吗？
Can Yunnan drought justify increased Pu-erh prices in 2013?
2009年入秋以来，中国西南等部分地区降水较少，气温偏高，出现持续干旱。近期，旱情仍呈发展态势。
Since Autumn 2009, South Western China has seen a lack of precipitation and high temperatures, which created a drought. Nowadays, the situation is still worrying.
虽然旱情对云南省茶叶生产有较大影响，但茶叶消费弹性大，价格上涨对普通消费者影响不大。
Even though the drought has had a severe impact on tea production, despite irregular consumption, the price increase has not impacted the demand.
据统计，云南省茶叶产量约占国内总产量的13%，其中春茶占省内茶叶产量的25%至30%。云南省农业厅预计，2010年省内春茶将因旱灾减产50%左右，其中普洱春茶减产约60%。受此影响，去年普洱茶收购价格涨幅已超过20%，最高的超过70%。
According to statistics, Yunnan tea represents 13% of the Chinese tea production, 25 to 30% if we only consider Spring tea. The Yunnan Agricultural Department estimates that, in 2010, the drought reduced production by 50% overall and by about 60% for Spring tea. As a consequence of the drought, the price of tea last year increased by 20% on average, and up to 70% in some villages.
由于国内普洱茶产量占茶叶总产量的比重不足4%，且目前库存充裕（东莞普洱茶藏量占普洱茶总量的2/3），干旱减产不会影响市场供应。
As a result, Pu-erh tea does not even account for 4% of the total Chinese production nowadays, yet, the Pu-erh stock remains large (two thirds of the Pu-erh tea is stored in Dongguan, near Guangzhou), therefore, the drought should not have an influence on the supply.
在全国消费能力提高、物价都涨的情况下：2013年普洱茶春茶价格涨是一定的，不然茶农怎么脱贫，茶商怎么赚钱？但小编我认为云南干旱了这么几年，今年应该不会还用干旱做为普洱茶涨价的因素吧？*
In China, the consumption should continue to increase and the prices do the same: Pu-erh tea will surely be more expensive in 2013. Still, will the farmers get out of poverty? Will the tea shops make money? I think the Yunnan drought has been around for years, can it still be used as an argument to justify higher prices?
